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Essence of Decision

Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis

Phillip Zelikow & Graham T. Allison, 2nd Edition, 1999

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Part I: The Three Models of Decision-Making

• Model I: Rational Actor Model (RAM)
  • Assumes states act as unified rational decision-makers to maximize strategic objectives.
  • The Cuban Missile Crisis is seen as a calculated Soviet move to deter U.S. invasion of Cuba.
  • U.S. response was guided by cost-benefit analysis, seeking to avoid war while compelling missile removal.
• Model II: Organizational Process Model
  • Governments are not monolithic; actions result from standard operating procedures (SOPs) within bureaucracies.
  • Bureaucratic routines shaped crisis decisions (e.g., U.S. military response constrained by pre-set procedures).
  • Soviet missile deployment followed standard logistical processes, not a centralized strategic choice.
• Model III: Bureaucratic Politics Model
  • Policy outcomes result from bargaining among political actors with differing interests.
  • Kennedy’s advisors had competing perspectives, leading to compromise policies.
  • Khrushchev faced internal pressures, influencing his decision to place and then remove missiles.

Part II: Application to the Cuban Missile Crisis

• Each model provides a different explanation for Soviet and U.S. actions.
• The Rational Actor Model suggests deterrence and strategic maneuvering.
• The Organizational Process Model highlights constraints from bureaucratic inertia.
• The Bureaucratic Politics Model shows internal leadership struggles shaping decisions.
• No single model fully explains the crisis; a combination is necessary.

Key Takeaways

• Decision-making in foreign policy is complex and shaped by multiple frameworks.
• Viewing events through different models helps avoid simplistic, one-dimensional explanations.
• Bureaucracies and internal politics can constrain leaders’ choices, often leading to suboptimal outcomes.
• The Cuban Missile Crisis remains a critical case study for understanding government decision-making under pressure.